The Most Important Characteristic

I recently saw a research piece from Wolfe Trahan where the well-known and highly respected analyst, Francois Trahan, referenced the book, Good to Great, in discussing the “best” portfolio strategies. It got me thinking about Pinnacle’s investment methodology and how we continually attempt to improve how we do what we do. I’m not sure how anyone in the investment business characterizes themselves as “great,” since active money managers know that the market makes a mockery of us on a routine basis. However, I was thinking about our investment team, and specifically our investment analysts, and wondering what characteristic is most needed to be great. They certainly need to be intelligent, persistent, tireless, and able to fit complicated ideas into a simple narrative.

But I think far and away the most important characteristic for an investment analyst -- at least here at Pinnacle -- is courage. Perhaps not physical courage (although there have been times when shoes were thrown in my direction during investment team meetings), but having the courage of your convictions. In the real world of working on an investment team, there are many team dynamics that come into play that can sway the decision-making ability of the group. For example, there is first and foremost a natural desire to conform to the same opinions as the rest of the group. It is a very uncomfortable feeling to sit in a meeting with your peers where they all say black and you say white. Yet the analyst who makes an impassioned case for “white” often adds the most value to the conversation, if for no other reason than it makes the rest of the team reconsider “black” as the best answer. The willingness to resist compromise, especially on a team where everyone actually likes and respects each other, takes courage. It is terribly human to want to fit in and behavioral finance tells us that herd behavior is one of the heuristics that lead investors to poor investment decisions. It takes courage to exhibit what society considers 'bad manners.'

Along the same lines, it takes courage to oppose the opinion of the Chief Investment Officer, and the opinion of the Chief Investment Strategist. It ain’t easy to go toe-to-toe with the boss, especially when you will be sitting at the table with him discussing next year’s compensation at the end of the year. Yet it turns out that informed, considered, and well-articulated dissent is a requirement for investment analysts who want to succeed in a career at Pinnacle. As one of the architects of our investment process, perhaps the thing I am most proud of is the group of analysts on our investment team. Our investment process depends on the conviction of the team in our forecast, which is forged in serious debate about the market evidence. For our analysts, that's just another day at the office -- and that takes guts.

The Answer to the Question...

A couple weeks ago, I posed a question in my blog post, “Asking the Wrong Question?” Investors typically choose between two different philosophies of portfolio construction. One method is the traditional method of investing in markets, where you have years of data to rationalize investment decisions. By owning markets, you are saying that you are willing to live with whatever returns and volatility they deliver, with the expectation that over the long-term, they will perform as expected. Of course, the problem is that markets can misbehave and investors can panic. During secular bear periods, markets can underperform expectations for decades.

As a solution, Wall Street suggests we invest in managers who implement strategies designed to deliver returns independent of markets. That is why the investment universe includes private equity, hedge funds, managed futures, and other low correlation strategies. The problem here is that managers make mistakes, and go 'hot' and 'cold' in delivering returns on a systematic basis. Strategies work until the market arbitrages the excess returns to… well… market returns. In the worst case, managers can 'blow up,' creating havoc with an investor’s portfolio.

The question remains, which approach is better? The answer is neither. Both approaches offer investors rewards along with a clear set of risks. Pinnacle has addressed this problem by creating a portfolio construction process that utilizes the best of both philosophies. Our portfolio asset allocation must stay within well-defined limits of volatility that are based on the past performance of markets. We respect the idea that past performance, while not a guarantee of future results, does give us a rational basis to begin to forecast future returns. We believe that individual markets, or asset classes, are efficient enough so that we don’t try to pick winning stocks or bonds within an asset class, and are content to own industries, sectors, and countries using ETFs and mutual funds. However, we also recognize that the performance of markets depends on the market cycle, the psychology of investors, and the valuation of markets. Therefore, we think it’s important to be active managers.

We defend against the problems with active management in a variety of ways.

1. We have an investment team instead of one stellar senior manager who can have hot and cold streaks. 
2. We trade incrementally based on changes in the data so that we can avoid large market timing errors. 
3. We are non-dogmatic in our approach to discovering value, so we look at value in three different ways. 
4. We use both qualitative and quantitative methods to make investment decisions. 
5. We use a relative value approach that encourages us to stay within striking distance of our benchmark allocations. 
6. We try to hit 'singles and doubles' rather than making large bets that are win/lose propositions. 

Our assumption is that all active managers will make investment mistakes. We try to make fewer mistakes than the consensus, which has been a great recipe for earning positive risk adjusted returns.