Friday, July 8, 2011

Earth to Jobs, Where Are You?

Yesterday the ADP survey reported that more jobs were created than forecast, and investors rejoiced in jubilation on a bet that the soft patch was already ebbing. Fast forward one day and the euphoria is gone. Today’s job report was miserable - just 18K. After yesterday, the whisper number of the street exceeded 140K with the estimate being about 105K. 18K! And this follows a whopping 54K last month. Jobs are crucial to extending the current cycle. Without jobs wages will continue to stagnate, spending will begin to decelerate, housing won’t find a bottom, and all that money the fed pumped in is going to stay stuck in the banking system. Anyone betting on the soft patch being temporary was just forced rethink that thesis again.